| Are you Lucky or Cursed? 
|
(CBL Newswire) - By Professor Bill Frink PhD.
Head of the Department of Statistics
University of Moose Jaw (UMJ) |
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The struggles of my favourite team, the Moose Jaw Dragons, has lead me to do some research. Picked by many pundits to win it all this season the Dragons were expected to be among the best teams in the league but are just 29 and 29 with a slim one game lead over the rest of the woeful Farmers East Division. In spite of winning a CBL record 105 games last year, this year the Dragons have limped to a .500 record in early June even though they have played well. To see if other teams were similarly unlucky I used Bill James' pythagorean winning percentage formula to calculate the expected wins and losses for every team in the CBL and compared that to the actual results achieved. This attempts to measure the number of wins and losses a team is expected to have given the number of runs they score and the number of runs they allow. The table below details the results as of June 10, 2004.
|
|
|
Runs
|
Pythagorian
|
Actual
|
Pythagorian
|
Actual
|
Wins +/-
|
| Team |
Games
|
Scored
|
Allowed
|
W-L %
|
W-L %
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Wins
|
Losses
|
Expected
|
|
Fishermans League
|
| Charlottetown Blues |
58
|
202
|
283
|
0.350
|
0.345
|
20
|
38
|
20
|
38
|
0
|
| Blackwater Kolts |
58
|
323
|
329
|
0.492
|
0.534
|
29
|
29
|
31
|
27
|
2
|
| Fredricton Bandits |
58
|
283
|
270
|
0.522
|
0.603
|
30
|
28
|
35
|
23
|
5
|
| PEI Radicals |
60
|
332
|
278
|
0.581
|
0.533
|
35
|
25
|
32
|
28
|
-3
|
| St. Johns Redmen |
57
|
229
|
246
|
0.467
|
0.474
|
27
|
30
|
27
|
30
|
0
|
| Port Hope Battery |
58
|
252
|
264
|
0.479
|
0.517
|
28
|
30
|
30
|
28
|
2
|
| Montreal Mad Minds |
57
|
282
|
309
|
0.458
|
0.491
|
26
|
31
|
28
|
29
|
2
|
| Ottawa Milk Men |
59
|
265
|
226
|
0.572
|
0.542
|
34
|
25
|
32
|
27
|
-2
|
| Quebec Quality |
58
|
265
|
270
|
0.491
|
0.448
|
29
|
29
|
26
|
32
|
-3
|
| Val D'or Foreurs |
58
|
275
|
289
|
0.477
|
0.397
|
28
|
30
|
23
|
35
|
-5
|
| London Werewolves |
59
|
307
|
256
|
0.582
|
0.610
|
34
|
25
|
36
|
23
|
2
|
| Sault Ste. Marie Stampede |
60
|
257
|
288
|
0.448
|
0.450
|
27
|
33
|
27
|
33
|
0
|
| Guelph Storm |
59
|
195
|
260
|
0.371
|
0.407
|
22
|
37
|
24
|
35
|
2
|
| Toronto Lightning |
59
|
278
|
177
|
0.696
|
0.644
|
41
|
18
|
38
|
21
|
-3
|
|
Farmers League
|
| Moose Jaw Dragons |
58
|
250
|
210
|
0.579
|
0.500
|
34
|
24
|
29
|
29
|
-5
|
| Regina Pirates |
58
|
242
|
238
|
0.508
|
0.483
|
29
|
29
|
28
|
30
|
-1
|
| Saskatoon Knights |
60
|
199
|
336
|
0.277
|
0.267
|
17
|
43
|
16
|
44
|
-1
|
| Winnepeg Cutthroats |
57
|
233
|
269
|
0.435
|
0.439
|
25
|
32
|
25
|
32
|
0
|
| Yellowknife Bluenotes |
58
|
229
|
243
|
0.473
|
0.466
|
27
|
31
|
27
|
31
|
0
|
| Calgary Remparts |
57
|
203
|
258
|
0.392
|
0.421
|
22
|
35
|
24
|
33
|
2
|
| Banff Barons |
58
|
212
|
241
|
0.442
|
0.397
|
26
|
32
|
23
|
35
|
-3
|
| Lethbridge Typhoon |
58
|
315
|
214
|
0.670
|
0.707
|
39
|
19
|
41
|
17
|
2
|
| Leduc Grizzlies |
58
|
294
|
197
|
0.675
|
0.707
|
39
|
19
|
41
|
17
|
2
|
| Taber Rig Pigs |
59
|
302
|
181
|
0.718
|
0.712
|
42
|
17
|
42
|
17
|
0
|
| Kelowna Americans |
59
|
205
|
273
|
0.372
|
0.356
|
22
|
37
|
21
|
38
|
-1
|
| Vancouver Vipers |
60
|
214
|
288
|
0.367
|
0.433
|
22
|
38
|
26
|
34
|
4
|
| Victoria Islanders |
59
|
222
|
259
|
0.430
|
0.508
|
25
|
34
|
30
|
29
|
5
|
| Creston Kokanee |
59
|
321
|
234
|
0.641
|
0.610
|
38
|
21
|
36
|
23
|
-2
|
As you can see the unluckiest teams were: Moose Jaw and Val D'or which both have lost 5 more games than expected. The luckiest teams wereVictoria, Fredricton and Vancouver.
I will be conducting follow up studies throught the season.
What is pythagorean winning percentage?*
Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by
(Runs Scored)^1.83
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83
The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but this has proven to be a little more accurate.
Thanks to baseballreference.com for this definition. This is a great site check it out.
To suggest a statistics related article or ask a statistics related question contact Professor Bill Frink.
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